Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
